I continue to snigger at your pronouncements of technological inevitability

Back in January, I declared my amusement at people proclaiming impending technology trend takeovers as inevitable and irresistible. Among other things, I had this to say (it’s a familiar phrase in Britain):

What a load of bollocks.

 
Today I was provided with another example (thanks Ralph):

What falling e-book sales tell us about technology in 2017

I encourage you to read that post, which seems to me to be right on the money. E-books, yesterday’s Next Big Thing, are now in sharp decline. The inevitable technology takeover turned out to be not quite so inevitable after all. Who could have guessed?

Here’s another quote from my January post:

Next time somebody tries to tell you something like, “The whole software industry is moving to the rental model, all software will be sold that way soon, there will be no avoiding it,” please refer them to paragraph two above.

 
Autodesk has bet the farm on not just one apparently inevitable technology trend, but two. If either rental-only software and cloud-based CAD/BIM/M&E fail to live up to expectations, Autodesk will be in a world of pain.

That’s quite a gamble, and Autodesk has already blown a billion bucks on what it probably thought was a sure thing. Anybody who thinks there’s such a thing as a sure thing in technology hasn’t been paying attention.

2 Comments

  1. I think it is more a media doesn’t die it just fades away. Ebooks might have found their level, real books will carry on at reduced levels.

    It is also not a given, or quick, but I hardly carry cash any more and use financial services for virtually all transactions but that took a multi-channel and multi-industry shift over several decades. I cant remember the last time I installed an app off physical media, I bet in a decade or so I won’t remember installing an app (on any device)

    Analogies are hard, transitions are harder

  2. Something has to be implemented “correctly” before it even has a chance to catch on. By correctly I mean usable enough to do what the “old” way did. Autodesk did not implement Civil3D correctly, and the entire industry has stalled because most cad managers or lead tech people are afraid to transition a company to different software than they are using now. Its crazy, but reality, and things like this contribute to good ideas fading away. Its like a train put on tracks to nowhere. The train will NEVER make it to the right destination, no matter how optimistic it is.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *